Osama Bin Laden is dead. The most feared terrorist in the world was killed by US troops in Abbottabad. This elimination of the head of the Al-Qaida has sparked many concerns and many theories have been forwarded by experts on how the world scenario would be like without Osama. Some have foretold that there would be an increase in terrorist attacks in response to the killing of Laden and that the countries of the world should be prepared for that. I see the whole scenario in a different way.
Osama Bin Laden occupied a position of moral, economic, political and ideological authority over terrorist organizations of all shapes and forms. Everyone in that circle aspires for that post but everyone accepted Osama in that position because of his iconic image. Now that he is gone, there is a power vacuum that needs to be filled and there are a number of contenders.
The position gives the person who holds it, enormous power, both economic and political. Thus, there are a number of strong contenders who are ready to go to any length to occupy that position. This post has now been offered to an ex-Egyptian special forces officer. It had been previously stated that Al Zawahiri, an Egyptian doctor, was the most competent for that post. So we see that a rift has already been made in the ranks of the terrorists.
History of Islam and the Caliphate tells us that the Egyptians are very different from the Arabs and are not very comfortable to be under the rule of the Wahabis. The Arabs, by nature believe that the sphere of Islam is their domain and no Muslim of any other ethnicity has the equal right to interpret and govern Islam. It is to be noted here that Egypt was the first region to proclaim a parallel Caliphate and move away from Arab dominated Islam. So, history has created a rift between Egyptians and Arabs.
The coming of an Egyptian to the head of Al Qaida has not gone down well with the rank and file of the terrorist organization. There are many dissidents. The present incumbent at the helm of affairs is trying his best to unite the organization by focusing on the revenge of Osama’s death, but that call for revenge is not being as successful as he had hoped. There seems to be a lack of a concerted effort and most of the leaders are only looking for opportunities to usurp power.
In this state of internecine conflict, the best strategy for the West would be to stay put and not get involved. Troops should be withdrawn from Iraq and Afghanistan as scheduled, and there should be minimal response to terrorist attacks. The least we need now is an external enemy for Al Qaida, which would give them a reason to unite. Now as the organization is on the verge of a power struggle we should help in the struggle by staying out of it. They will destroy themselves from inside.
Osama is dead but he has left a legacy that people are ready to do anything to inherit. The only obstacle in their path is each other and not an external enemy. We should just sit back and watch as the drama unfolds and respond, and not give them a reason to respond.
Perhaps the group doesn't need a leader to respond. And they responded in no time. The attack on the Navy base camp in Karachi on 22/5/11 at 10:30 pm is a testimony to the same.
ReplyDeleteSo now re-frame your theory dear.
Well, I did not say that there would be no attacks but that now is not the time to act but to react. Let the internal dynamics of the organization gather momentum and that will drown the organization. There will be attacks but it would be to our interest to wait and watch rather than go into an attack and invade mode.
ReplyDeleteThat, my dear, is my point.
Thanks for reading and giving the comment.