The situation in Libya could soon turn into a second Iraq for the West, especially the USA, if it is not careful. However, the initial damage has been done. The West has entered militarily into the Libya situation. Now some of you may say that the West wants to extract all the resources of Libya, especially oil, and that is why it has helped impose a No-Fly Zone over Libya. If this is true, the West is much more stupid than I thought. Lets go through the situation one reason at a time.
The West has not unilaterally imposed a No-Fly Zone over Libya, the Arab League has backed this move in the UN. I think the West should not have taken up this offer of personally imposing the No-Fly Zone, thus deploying its own personnel in Libya. But you may ask what is wrong with that, after all the Arab League supports it? Well, everything is wrong in this case. The Arab League, as its history says, has always been a slimy partner. Even though they say that they support the No-Fly Zone, they will do a volte face as soon as the tide turns. So the backing of the Arab League cannot be depended on.
This stance might mean a lot of expenditure for the West. The imposition of the No-Fly Zone itself is costing a humongous sum of money to the West. If the situation changes this expenditure may increase tenfold. Gaddafi is fighting the rebels. The rebels are fighting Gaddafi. With the West having decided to use their own forces in Libya the crisis may spiral out of control. It would be very easy for Gaddafi and other leaders to point to the presence of Western troops in Libya and say that the West is their common enemy and be able to unite Libya and take over control. The excuse he needs is the death of a few civilians. In that scenario other anti-Western countries will also raise their voices. Seeing the changing winds the Arab League will do a volte face and condemn the West’s attack on Libya saying that they just wanted the imposition of a No-Fly Zone and not war. This stance will lead to massive expenditure by the West on its military presence to control the sticky situation. They will have to fight the people in whose name they started the imposition of the No-Fly Zone.
People in general have a very short memory span. In a few weeks people would have forgotten that the Arab League had called for a No-Fly Zone over Libya and supported the UN resolution. What they will see is the presence of Western troops in Libya and then it will be very easy to brain wash them, starting off terrorist attacks on the West in the name of Libya’s liberty. It will become a second Iraq.
Instead of going headlong to fight for human rights, the West should have insisted on the Arab League providing the military personnel to impose the No-Fly Zone and promised to provide monetary and technical aid to the Arab League. The West would still have been blamed for fanning the flames against the liberty of people but at least the main ire would have fallen on the Arab League, making it easier for the West to manipulate it (if that is the West’s motive). Terrorist attacks would have been restricted to the Middle Eastern countries of the Arab League instead of focusing its wrath on the West. This would have brought the Arab League on the side of the West in its fight against terrorism. I really do not understand why smear mud on yourself when you can help it.
All of this may just be a fool’s musing and the main motive may be much more subtle and far more complex. May be but it surely does not seem so. I am not anti-Arab or something of that nonsense. I am just talking in terms of profit and loss. But if my assessment of the situation is correct then I salute the Arab League for their masterful diplomatic success in shifting the responsibility to the West without even any financial expenditure.
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